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Ask : Should I Invest My Down Payment?

Welcome to our Ask series, where we tackle your questions about personal finance and investing. Want to see your question answered here? Reach out to us on social media and we’ll try to address it in a future column.

I’m saving for a house. Should I invest my down payment or keep it in cash?

As you decide whether to invest your down payment or keep it in cash, you’re primarily making a decision about risk. Investing, by definition, involves some risk—but that’s why it can offer higher expected returns over the long run. Cash is very low risk, but it is likely to offer lower expected returns.

In this post, we’ll give you a framework for thinking about risk in the context of your down payment so you can decide what’s right for you. We’ll highlight the tradeoffs related to three options you might consider:

Keeping your down payment in cash
Investing your down payment in a low-risk investment like US Treasuries
Investing your down payment in a diversified portfolio

The argument for keeping your down payment in cash

Keeping your down payment in cash is a great option if you expect to buy a home imminently or if you are unwilling or unable to take any risk to your principal. If you keep your down payment in a savings account or high-yield cash account, you’ll have a high degree of certainty that your money will be there when you need it. However, you’ll be making a tradeoff when it comes to expected returns.

Over long periods of time, cash is unlikely to earn enough interest to keep up with inflation. So if you keep your down payment in cash for long enough, you could actually lose buying power. If you plan to buy a house imminently, this is unlikely to be an issue. But over longer periods of time, you could be leaving potential returns (and thus housing budget) on the table.

If you do decide to keep your down payment in cash, we suggest picking an account with a very competitive APY and adequate FDIC insurance. Many banks pay next-to nothing in interest and, as insured depository institutions, are limited to $250,000 in FDIC insurance per account holder. But the Itrust Cash Account offers an industry-leading 4.50% APY and up to $8 million in FDIC insurance ($16 million for joint accounts) through our partner banks. Plus, the Cash Account comes with no account fees and your money is readily available when you need it. By choosing a good home for your cash, you can ensure your down payment earns a competitive interest rate and is well protected in case of an unforeseen event.

The argument for investing your down payment in a low-risk investment like US Treasuries

While holding cash can feel psychologically rewarding, it could make more sense to invest your down payment in a low-risk investment like US Treasuries. While they have a lower expected long-term return than a diversified portfolio of US equities, US Treasuries can offer a steady yield until maturity and the interest you earn is exempt from state and local income taxes. At the same time, US Treasuries are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, which is why they are considered among the safest investments in the world. If held to maturity, US Treasuries pose virtually no risk to your principal, although you run the risk of losing some principal if you sell before then (if interest rates go up, the price of the bond may decrease).

Because of these benefits, US Treasuries can be a very attractive and low-risk way to invest your down payment whether you’re buying a home in a few months or a few years. You could argue that US Treasuries are the sweet spot between holding your down payment in cash and investing it in a diversified portfolio. And if you want to minimize the risk associated with interest rate fluctuations, you could consider building a US Treasury ladder (a type of bond ladder) with US Treasuries of varying maturities.

At Itrust, we built our Automated Bond Ladder (a ladder of US Treasuries) to make it easy to benefit from a bond ladder strategy without any of the hassle it normally entails for a low annual advisory fee of 0.25%. The Automated Bond Ladder can be a great way to invest your down payment if you want to keep your level of risk very low and take advantage of state income tax exemptions, and it comes with up to $500,000 of SIPC insurance. When you’re ready to buy a home, your ladder is very liquid and there are no early withdrawal penalties. You can even set a target withdrawal date for your Automated Bond Ladder, which can be useful if you have a timeline you’re fairly confident in.

The argument for investing your down payment in a diversified portfolio

Finally, if your time horizon for buying a home is five or more years away, you might consider keeping your down payment in a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds. It’s true that this type of portfolio (like Itrust’s Classic portfolio) comes with more risk than cash or US Treasuries, but that risk could also get you higher expected returns over the long run. There’s also a well established relationship between risk and time horizon, and the longer you stay invested, the lower your probability of loss.

As you get closer to actually buying a home, it could be wise to shift your down payment from a diversified portfolio to one of the lower-risk options discussed above. The reason for this? Financial markets are unpredictable in the short term and can be volatile. It would be unfortunate if the market declined steeply at the exact time you needed to liquidate your investments to purchase a home—you could end up with a smaller down payment than you’d hoped for, and you’d also be selling investments when they’re down (which is nice to avoid if you can).

Key takeaways: Should you invest your down payment?

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether or not you should invest your down payment, but there are some rules of thumb to keep in mind:

If you plan to buy a house imminently, it probably makes sense to keep your down payment in cash.
If you plan to buy a house soon (a few months to a few years from now) and want to earn a higher yield with very little risk, consider investing in US Treasuries.
If you’re at least five years away from buying a home and are willing to take on additional risk in order to potentially grow your down payment, a diversified portfolio of index funds could be a good fit.

It’s also an option to split your down payment if you believe you can benefit from a variety of approaches—you don’t have to keep all of it in one place. For instance, you could keep half of your down payment in cash and the other half in a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds if you wanted to balance out a higher-risk option with the lowest risk option.

We hope this helps!

What an Election Year Means for Your Investments

Election years bring uncertainty, and this year’s presidential election is no exception. However, you might be surprised to learn that history shows they usually don’t have much impact on your portfolio. In this post, we’ll dig into the data.

What history tells us about investing during election years

To understand the impact of presidential election years on investments, we looked at US stock market data all the way back to 1927, using Kenneth French’s data library. First, we analyzed mean annual returns for the US stock market for all years 1927-2023 compared to election years during that period of time.

We found that the mean annual total return for non-election years was 12.1% and the mean annual total return for election years was 11.7%. The chart below shows these returns. However, we also performed a t-test (a way of discerning whether or not results are statistically significant) and found that the difference between election year and non-election year returns was not statistically significant. In other words, US stock market total returns are pretty much the same on average whether or not it’s an election year.

Next, we compared average annual volatility in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023 to see if election years are meaningfully more volatile than non-election years. We found that mean volatility in non-election years was 15% over that time period, and mean volatility in election years was 15.3%. However, once again, our t-test confirmed these differences were not statistically significant, meaning the US stock market, historically, is just about as volatile on average in an election year as it is in a non-election year.

Finally, we compared the average maximum drawdown (or largest decline from a recent peak) in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023. We found that the average maximum drawdown was slightly greater in non-election years at -16.0% than in election years at -14.6%. Again, however, these differences were not statistically significant.

It’s worth noting that our analysis picked up some small differences between election years where Republican candidates won and Democratic candidates won. The US stock market had slightly higher mean returns, lower mean volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns during years when a Republican won the presidential election. Here again, our hypothesis testing did not find evidence that any of these differences were statistically significant. Especially given the small number of total data points, the historical differences observed are small enough to be attributed to random chance.

Even if the market does decline or become more volatile in the short term (which is always possible), it’s important to keep an eye on the long term. Risk of loss generally goes down as your investing time horizon gets longer. If you plan to be in the market for the long run, fluctuations in your account balance today could end up being blips on the radar in the future.

Should you adjust your investment strategy in an election year?

Put simply, we don’t think so. As tempting as it may be, timing the market usually doesn’t work. Any information you have that you think might impact investment performance is presumably already broadly available. This means it’s already priced in, and you’re unlikely to come out ahead.

Instead, we suggest focusing on what you can control:

Managing your risk: Invest in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance, and rebalance it over time to ensure you don’t drift too far from your target allocation. Itrust automates this process so you don’t have to think about it.

Keeping your costs low: Choose low-cost index funds whenever possible, and invest with a service that charges a low management fee (Itrust’s annual fee is just 0.15%).

Minimizing your taxes: Harvest losses and use them to help lower your tax bill. The process of tax-loss harvesting can be time consuming if done manually, but Itrust does this automatically and at no extra cost.

Major events like elections can rattle investors. And while it’s true that there are some small differences in the annual returns, volatility, and maximum drawdowns observed in years when the United States elected a new president, it’s worth remembering that the number of data points is very small and the differences were not statistically significant. If you look at the big picture, these small differences in performance are ultimately not worth paying much attention to.

Ask : Should I Invest My Down Payment?

I’m saving for a house. Should I invest my down payment or keep it in cash?

Keeping your down payment in cash
Investing your down payment in a low-risk investment like US Treasuries
Investing your down payment in a diversified portfolio

The argument for keeping your down payment in cash

The argument for investing your down payment in a low-risk investment like US Treasuries

The argument for investing your down payment in a diversified portfolio

Key takeaways: Should you invest your down payment?

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether or not you should invest your down payment, but there are some rules of thumb to keep in mind:

If you plan to buy a house imminently, it probably makes sense to keep your down payment in cash.
If you plan to buy a house soon (a few months to a few years from now) and want to earn a higher yield with very little risk, consider investing in US Treasuries.
If you’re at least five years away from buying a home and are willing to take on additional risk in order to potentially grow your down payment, a diversified portfolio of index funds could be a good fit.

We hope this helps!

Our Thoughts on Investing in Cryptocurrency

Note: As of March 21, 2024, Itrust uses the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to represent the Bitcoin asset class instead of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). As of September 9, 2024, Itrust uses the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) to represent the Ethereum asset class instead of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). Read more here.

Earlier this summer, we began supporting cryptocurrency exposure in Itrust portfolios. We’re very excited about this, and we’re proud to offer clients so many choices in building their ideal portfolio. We also take seriously our role as a fiduciary, and we want to offer some guidance to anyone who is considering investing in cryptocurrency — either at Itrust or elsewhere.

One of the most important things to understand about cryptocurrency as an investment is that it’s highly volatile — this means it can either gain or lose a significant amount of value in a short period of time. For example, Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market capitalization, has a price history marked by large rallies and crashes, and in the last 12 months it has traded as high as $64,863.10 and as low as $9,916.49. On May 19, over the course of a single day, Bitcoin’s value fell 30%. It’s true that many people have profited handsomely from investing in digital currencies, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

Because of this volatility, we consider investments in cryptocurrency risky. This includes the Grayscale statutory trusts GBTC and ETHE, which we offer on our platform. These trusts allow investors to get exposure to cryptocurrency without owning coins directly, but introduce another variable: potential tracking error which can cause the price of a share of the trust to differ from the value of the underlying asset.

We don’t say all of this to scare you away from investing in cryptocurrency. We’re proponents of financial innovation and believers in the power of software — and as a result, we’re excited about digital currencies. We know many of our clients are equally excited, so we want to give you a framework for thinking about these investments. Our advice is this: if you’re going to invest in cryptocurrency, we think you should have an investment thesis.

An investment thesis is a logical argument for why an investment will increase in value over time. Often, an investment thesis will evaluate an investment’s cash flow, but that isn’t possible in the case of cryptocurrency. Instead, a successful investment thesis for cryptocurrency should draw on research and analysis of its characteristics and future economic events. For example, Fidelity’s investment thesis for Bitcoin references the asset’s fixed supply and a number of factors that could drive an increase in Bitcoin demand including deglobalization and the transfer of wealth to millennials. Whether or not you agree with these specific reasons for investing in cryptocurrency, this is the kind of logic we encourage you to use.

Unfortunately, some of the most common reasons for wanting to invest in cryptocurrency don’t make great investment theses. Many people want to invest in cryptocurrency because it has performed well in the past — but this doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue to do so in the future. Some people might also feel pressure to invest in cryptocurrency because it seems like everyone else is doing it, but FOMO doesn’t make a good investment thesis, either.

We’re delighted to be the first investing service to allow clients to get exposure to cryptocurrency in a diversified and automated portfolio with features like tax-sensitive rebalancing and our industry-leading Tax-Loss Harvesting. We hope this advice helps you navigate the question of how to invest in cryptocurrency so you can confidently build wealth on your own terms.