Sign In

Article

— news

What an Election Year Means for Your Investments

Election years bring uncertainty, and this year’s presidential election is no exception. However, you might be surprised to learn that history shows they usually don’t have much impact on your portfolio. In this post, we’ll dig into the data.

What history tells us about investing during election years

To understand the impact of presidential election years on investments, we looked at US stock market data all the way back to 1927, using Kenneth French’s data library. First, we analyzed mean annual returns for the US stock market for all years 1927-2023 compared to election years during that period of time. 

We found that the mean annual total return for non-election years was 12.1% and the mean annual total return for election years was 11.7%. The chart below shows these returns. However, we also performed a t-test (a way of discerning whether or not results are statistically significant) and found that the difference between election year and non-election year returns was not statistically significant. In other words, US stock market total returns are pretty much the same on average whether or not it’s an election year.

 

Next, we compared average annual volatility in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023 to see if election years are meaningfully more volatile than non-election years. We found that mean volatility in non-election years was 15% over that time period, and mean volatility in election years was 15.3%. However, once again, our t-test confirmed these differences were not statistically significant, meaning the US stock market, historically, is just about as volatile on average in an election year as it is in a non-election year. 

Finally, we compared the average maximum drawdown (or largest decline from a recent peak) in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023. We found that the average maximum drawdown was slightly greater in non-election years at -16.0% than in election years at -14.6%. Again, however, these differences were not statistically significant. 

It’s worth noting that our analysis picked up some small differences between election years where Republican candidates won and Democratic candidates won. The US stock market had slightly higher mean returns, lower mean volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns during years when a Republican won the presidential election. Here again, our hypothesis testing did not find evidence that any of these differences were statistically significant. Especially given the small number of total data points, the historical differences observed are small enough to be attributed to random chance. 

Even if the market does decline or become more volatile in the short term (which is always possible), it’s important to keep an eye on the long term. Risk of loss generally goes down as your investing time horizon gets longer. If you plan to be in the market for the long run, fluctuations in your account balance today could end up being blips on the radar in the future.

Should you adjust your investment strategy in an election year?

Put simply, we don’t think so. As tempting as it may be, timing the market usually doesn’t work. Any information you have that you think might impact investment performance is presumably already broadly available. This means it’s already priced in, and you’re unlikely to come out ahead. 

Instead, we suggest focusing on what you can control:

  • Managing your risk: Invest in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance, and rebalance it over time to ensure you don’t drift too far from your target allocation. Itrust automates this process so you don’t have to think about it. 
  • Keeping your costs low: Choose low-cost index funds whenever possible, and invest with a service that charges a low management fee (Itrust’s annual fee is just 0.15%). 
  • Minimizing your taxes: Harvest losses and use them to help lower your tax bill. The process of tax-loss harvesting can be time consuming if done manually, but Itrust does this automatically and at no extra cost. 

Major events like elections can rattle investors. And while it’s true that there are some small differences in the annual returns, volatility, and maximum drawdowns observed in years when the United States elected a new president, it’s worth remembering that the number of data points is very small and the differences were not statistically significant. If you look at the big picture, these small differences in performance are ultimately not worth paying much attention to. 

How Can I Minimize Taxes When I Invest?

Taxes often signal good news for investors: they’re usually a sign you’re making money. At the same time, taxes can also eat into your returns and reduce the amount of earnings that you get to keep. Fortunately, there’s a lot you can do as an investor to lower your tax bill and invest more tax-efficiently. In this post, we’ll explain seven ways you can minimize the taxes you’ll owe on your investments.

1. Invest in index-based ETFs

Index-based ETFs are exchange-traded funds that let you track a broad market index with one investment.  They are inherently tax-efficient because they pass on very few earnings (or “taxable gains”) to investors who own the ETF, even when the value of the ETF is increasing—which, of course, you hope it will over the long run. 

How do index-based ETFs manage this? One, there’s not much change in the companies included in an index from year to year—typically, there’s only about 5-20% turnover each year, depending on the index in question. As a result, the ETF manager doesn’t have to sell stock that’s at a gain very often in order to remove it from the ETF’s holdings. And two, ETF issuers can reduce the gains they have to pass along to investors by intelligently realizing investment losses on the individual investments that make up the index.

2. Invest for the long term

Long-term investing isn’t just a smart way to take advantage of compounding—it’s also more tax-efficient than short-term investing. That’s because your investments are taxed at a much lower rate if you hold them for at least a year and a day, meaning you get to keep more of what you earn. To get this lower tax rate, you need to hold your investments long enough so that your gains will be treated as long-term capital gains, not short-term capital gains. 

Long-term capital gains are taxed at a maximum rate of 20% at the federal level. By contrast, short-term capital gains are taxed at the same rates as ordinary income (like your paycheck). The top tax rate at the federal level for short-term capital gains is 37% in 2022. 

3. Optimize your asset allocation for taxable and tax-advantaged accounts

You should factor in the rate at which your investments will be taxed when you select an asset allocation. The fancy name for this is “asset location,” but it really just means choosing the right investment mix for each type of account you have. For example, if you have a Roth IRA, any withdrawals after age 59 ½  that follow IRS rules should be tax-free. Because of this, you might consider holding more investments with less favorable tax treatment in that account than you would in a taxable account. 

Asset location can be complicated to figure out on your own, which is why you might prefer to let a service like Itrust do it for you. Itrust uses what’s known as “differentiated asset location” in choosing the right mix for your taxable and tax-advantaged accounts. Our software evaluates the way each asset class is taxed, its risk and return profile, and how it balances out other asset classes to pick the mix that’s right for your account and situation.

4. Rebalance with dividends

Rebalancing your portfolio means buying and selling investments to keep your mix of investments (or “asset allocation”) from drifting too far away from what you want it to be. In other words, you sell some of the investments that have done well and you buy more of the investments that have performed less well. Rebalancing is important because it ensures your portfolio stays at (or near) your intended level of risk and expected return.

Let’s say you had a portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and stocks performed extremely well and bonds did not. Over time, your asset allocation might drift to 70% stocks and 30% bonds. To rebalance your portfolio and get back to your target allocation, you would need to sell some stocks and buy some bonds. 

Of course, selling your winners usually means realizing some taxable gains. Fortunately, dividends can help with this. If you hold investments that pay dividends (for investments offered at Itrust, this information is readily available if you search here), you can use those dividends to rebalance your portfolio by buying investments you need more of. This should reduce the number of investments you need to sell to rebalance your portfolio, and reduce your tax bill as a result. When you invest with Itrust, we automatically rebalance your portfolio with dividends. 

5. Harvest your losses

Tax-loss harvesting is a strategy that has historically been used by sophisticated, wealthy  investors with high-end financial advisors to lower their tax bills. The concept is simple: when an investment declines in value below its purchase price, you sell it, “harvest” the loss, and then buy a similar investment that keeps your portfolio at the right level of risk and expected return. Come tax time, you can use the losses you’ve harvested to effectively cancel out other capital gains so you don’t owe taxes on them. No gains? No problem. You can use your harvested losses to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income (like your salary) each year and carry the rest of the losses forward to a future year.

As you might imagine, tax-loss harvesting can become very time-consuming if you’re doing it manually. Itrust’s Tax-Loss Harvesting service automates this process with the ETFs in your portfolio at no extra cost, and because software doesn’t get bored, it can look for losses every day the market is open and find more opportunities to harvest them than a human checking a few times a year is likely to. In 2021, our Tax-Loss Harvesting service generated average estimated tax savings worth between 4-9x our annual 0.25% advisory fee for clients who started using the service in a Classic or Socially Responsible portfolio last year.

Direct indexing

If you’re really serious about maximizing your harvested losses, you can use a strategy known as direct indexing. Direct indexing involves holding the individual stocks that make up a given index (rather than an ETF that tracks the index) and conducting tax-loss harvesting with those individual stocks. Individual stocks tend to be more volatile than indexes, so it’s easy to imagine a situation where a broad index might be up but a few individual stocks are down. As a result, you’ll generally get more opportunities to harvest losses with direct indexing than you would with ETF-level tax-loss harvesting. At Itrust, we offer our Direct Indexing service in all taxable Investment Accounts of at least $100,000 at no extra cost. 

6. Incorporate your existing investments when you transfer between accounts

Selling investments that have increased in value generates a taxable gain—and that means you’ll probably owe the IRS money. So if you’re moving investments from one platform or institution to another, you can minimize your taxes by incorporating existing investments into your new portfolio whenever possible (instead of selling and realizing a gain, moving your money, then buying the same investments all over again). At Itrust, our software automatically incorporates your existing investments whenever it can.

7. Keep taxes in mind when you make withdrawals

If you make a withdrawal from your investment account, you will typically need to sell some investments. To minimize the taxes you’ll owe, don’t just sell investments at random. Instead, consider selling investments that have lost value first—this won’t generate any taxes—followed by investments with relatively small gains, or gains that qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. This can help you minimize the taxes you’ll owe as a result of the withdrawal. When you withdraw from an Investment Account at Itrust, our software automatically sells investments to keep you close to your desired asset allocation—and within each asset class, we sell investments tax-efficiently. 

Bonus tip: use a robo-advisor to improve your after-tax returns

If you have a lot of time on your hands, it’s possible to implement most of the tips in this article by yourself. But it probably won’t be fun. When you invest with Itrust, we automate all of this for you to help maximize your after-tax returns with no extra effort or extra cost on your part. The following services are all included in Itrust 0.25% annual advisory fee:

  • Expert-built portfolios of index-based ETFs 
  • Different asset allocations for taxable and tax-advantaged accounts
  • Tax-sensitive rebalancing with dividends 
  • Tax-loss harvesting
  • Direct indexing (for accounts of $100,000 or more) 
  • Tax-minimized brokerage transfers
  • Tax-minimized withdrawals 

At Itrust, we’re focused on maximizing your after-tax returns: we believe that’s a big part of what sets us apart from other robo-advisors. At the end of the day, we want to see our clients (you!) successfully build secure and rewarding financial futures. Helping you keep more of what you earn is just one way we try to get you there a little faster.

Our Thoughts on Investing in Cryptocurrency

Note: As of March 21, 2024, Itrust uses the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to represent the Bitcoin asset class instead of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). As of September 9, 2024, Itrust uses the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) to represent the Ethereum asset class instead of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). Read more here.

Earlier this summer, we began supporting cryptocurrency exposure in Itrust portfolios. We’re very excited about this, and we’re proud to offer clients so many choices in building their ideal portfolio. We also take seriously our role as a fiduciary, and we want to offer some guidance to anyone who is considering investing in cryptocurrency — either at Itrust or elsewhere.

One of the most important things to understand about cryptocurrency as an investment is that it’s highly volatile — this means it can either gain or lose a significant amount of value in a short period of time. For example, Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market capitalization, has a price history marked by large rallies and crashes, and in the last 12 months it has traded as high as $64,863.10 and as low as $9,916.49. On May 19, over the course of a single day, Bitcoin’s value fell 30%. It’s true that many people have profited handsomely from investing in digital currencies, but it’s not for the faint of heart. 

Because of this volatility, we consider investments in cryptocurrency risky. This includes the Grayscale statutory trusts GBTC and ETHE, which we offer on our platform. These trusts allow investors to get exposure to cryptocurrency without owning coins directly, but introduce another variable: potential tracking error which can cause the price of a share of the trust to differ from the value of the underlying asset.

We don’t say all of this to scare you away from investing in cryptocurrency. We’re proponents of financial innovation and believers in the power of software — and as a result, we’re excited about digital currencies. We know many of our clients are equally excited, so we want to give you a framework for thinking about these investments. Our advice is this: if you’re going to invest in cryptocurrency, we think you should have an investment thesis. 

An investment thesis is a logical argument for why an investment will increase in value over time. Often, an investment thesis will evaluate an investment’s cash flow, but that isn’t possible in the case of cryptocurrency. Instead, a successful investment thesis for cryptocurrency should draw on research and analysis of its characteristics and future economic events. For example, Fidelity’s investment thesis for Bitcoin references the asset’s fixed supply and a number of factors that could drive an increase in Bitcoin demand including deglobalization and the transfer of wealth to millennials. Whether or not you agree with these specific reasons for investing in cryptocurrency, this is the kind of logic we encourage you to use.

Unfortunately, some of the most common reasons for wanting to invest in cryptocurrency don’t make great investment theses. Many people want to invest in cryptocurrency because it has performed well in the past — but this doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue to do so in the future. Some people might also feel pressure to invest in cryptocurrency because it seems like everyone else is doing it, but FOMO doesn’t make a good investment thesis, either.

We’re delighted to be the first investing service to allow clients to get exposure to cryptocurrency in a diversified and automated portfolio with features like tax-sensitive rebalancing and our industry-leading Tax-Loss Harvesting. We hope this advice helps you navigate the question of how to invest in cryptocurrency so you can confidently build wealth on your own terms. 

What an Election Year Means for Your Investments

Election years bring uncertainty, and this year’s presidential election is no exception. However, you might be surprised to learn that history shows they usually don’t have much impact on your portfolio. In this post, we’ll dig into the data.

What history tells us about investing during election years

To understand the impact of presidential election years on investments, we looked at US stock market data all the way back to 1927, using Kenneth French’s data library. First, we analyzed mean annual returns for the US stock market for all years 1927-2023 compared to election years during that period of time. 

We found that the mean annual total return for non-election years was 12.1% and the mean annual total return for election years was 11.7%. The chart below shows these returns. However, we also performed a t-test (a way of discerning whether or not results are statistically significant) and found that the difference between election year and non-election year returns was not statistically significant. In other words, US stock market total returns are pretty much the same on average whether or not it’s an election year.

 

Next, we compared average annual volatility in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023 to see if election years are meaningfully more volatile than non-election years. We found that mean volatility in non-election years was 15% over that time period, and mean volatility in election years was 15.3%. However, once again, our t-test confirmed these differences were not statistically significant, meaning the US stock market, historically, is just about as volatile on average in an election year as it is in a non-election year. 

Finally, we compared the average maximum drawdown (or largest decline from a recent peak) in the US stock market in all years from 1927-2023. We found that the average maximum drawdown was slightly greater in non-election years at -16.0% than in election years at -14.6%. Again, however, these differences were not statistically significant. 

It’s worth noting that our analysis picked up some small differences between election years where Republican candidates won and Democratic candidates won. The US stock market had slightly higher mean returns, lower mean volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns during years when a Republican won the presidential election. Here again, our hypothesis testing did not find evidence that any of these differences were statistically significant. Especially given the small number of total data points, the historical differences observed are small enough to be attributed to random chance. 

Even if the market does decline or become more volatile in the short term (which is always possible), it’s important to keep an eye on the long term. Risk of loss generally goes down as your investing time horizon gets longer. If you plan to be in the market for the long run, fluctuations in your account balance today could end up being blips on the radar in the future.

Should you adjust your investment strategy in an election year?

Put simply, we don’t think so. As tempting as it may be, timing the market usually doesn’t work. Any information you have that you think might impact investment performance is presumably already broadly available. This means it’s already priced in, and you’re unlikely to come out ahead. 

Instead, we suggest focusing on what you can control:

  • Managing your risk: Invest in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance, and rebalance it over time to ensure you don’t drift too far from your target allocation. Itrust automates this process so you don’t have to think about it. 
  • Keeping your costs low: Choose low-cost index funds whenever possible, and invest with a service that charges a low management fee (Itrust’s annual fee is just 0.15%). 
  • Minimizing your taxes: Harvest losses and use them to help lower your tax bill. The process of tax-loss harvesting can be time consuming if done manually, but Itrust does this automatically and at no extra cost. 

Major events like elections can rattle investors. And while it’s true that there are some small differences in the annual returns, volatility, and maximum drawdowns observed in years when the United States elected a new president, it’s worth remembering that the number of data points is very small and the differences were not statistically significant. If you look at the big picture, these small differences in performance are ultimately not worth paying much attention to.